Valencia County vs. New Mexico Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Valencia County: 2022 Population = 78,080 2022 Percent of State = 3.69% New Mexico: 2022 Population = 2,113,344 2022 Percent of U.S. = 0.63% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Valencia County with comparisons to New Mexico and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Valencia County vs. New Mexico's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 tracks Valencia County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Valencia County's population rose from 40,100 in 1969 to 78,080 in 2022, for a net gain of 37,980, or 94.71%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks New Mexico's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, New Mexico's population rose from 1,011,000 in 1969 to 2,113,344 in 2022, for a net gain of 1,102,344, or 109.04%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Valencia County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with New Mexico, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Valencia County's overall population growth was 94.71% over 1969-2022 trailed New Mexico's increase of 109.04%, and outpaced the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the New Mexico Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of comparing the population growth of Valencia County is to trace its individual percentage contributions to New Mexico's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than New Mexico's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Valencia County's population comprised 3.97% of New Mexico's population, while in 2022 it totaled 3.69% thereby yielding a -0.27% share-shift.
Valencia County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of Valencia County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Valencia County's population grew at an annual rate of 1.62% over 1970-2022. The county posted its highest growth in 1980 (8.56%) and posted its lowest growth in 1982 (-47.00%). In 2022, Valencia County's population grew by 1.10% Valencia County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in Valencia County's population since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Valencia County's annual population growth rate averaged 3.47%. It averaged -0.73% during the 1980s, 4.03% in the 1990s, 1.53% in the 2000s, 0.01% throughout the 2010s, 0.97% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Valencia County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for New Mexico and the nation. As the chart reveals, Valencia County's average annual population growth outpaced New Mexico's average during the 1970s (3.47% vs. 2.39%), posted below New Mexico's average in the 1980s (-0.73% vs. 1.62%), outpaced New Mexico's average throughout the 1990s (4.03% vs. 1.86%), led New Mexico's average in the 2000s (1.53% vs. 1.20%), amounted to less than New Mexico's average during the 2010s (0.01% vs. 0.36%), and outperformed New Mexico's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (0.97% vs. 0.05%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Valencia County led the nation during the 1970s (3.47% vs. 1.10%), fell below the nation during the 1980s (-0.73% vs. 0.95%), outperformed the nation in the 1990s (4.03% vs. 1.23%), led the nation during the 2000s (1.53% vs. 0.95%), trailed the nation throughout the 2010s (0.01% vs. 0.74%), and led the nation over 2020-2022 (0.97% vs. 0.31%).
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